Subnational Drivers of Regime Change: How Subnational Regimes Influence National Democratization and Autocratization Dynamics

What is the effect of subnational democratic variation on country-level regime change? Despite recent advances in our understanding of democratization and autocratization —and although scholars have identified the salience of subnational political dynamics— the interplay between subnational democracy and country-level regime change remains considerably underexplored. As a corrective, in line with Kellogg's core research theme on democracy, this project locates subnational democracy as a key factor impacting national democratic transitions and democratic breakdown. The evidence suggests that subnational democracy has a non-linear relationship with both national democratic transitions and breakdowns. Following a mixed-methods strategy, in this project I aim to build a new, territorially aware, theory of regime change. In this proposal I flesh out the research question, outline potential hypotheses and the research objectives, and I sketch the analytical approach that will shape the two peerreviewed articles I aim to produce during my one year at the Kellogg Institute.