Former Kellogg PhD Fellow Carlos Rondon is the co-author of a new paper, “Tracking R of COVID-19: A new real-time estimation using the Kalman filter,” in the scientific journal PLOS ONE. The paper assesses COVID-19’s effective reproduction number (R), or the average number of people infected by a single infectious individual.

“It’s the key metric for assessing whether we are successful in the fight against COVID-19,” Rondon, who now works at the Central Bank of Chile, told Kellogg. The authors’ estimates are provided in an interactive online dashboard at that allows the user to find the current value of R in their city, compare multiple countries, or see how R has changed over time.

The paper has been featured as part of The Lancet’s COVID-19 commission to the UN General Assembly and the UN’s Global Development Report. Its estimates are also available as part of the Ourworldindata database.


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