* Democracies and Dictatorships in Latin America: Emergence, Survival, and Fall * Scott Mainwaring and Aníbal Pérez-Liñán (Cambridge University Press, 2013) * Replication for Chapter 4: Regime Survival and Fall: A Quantitative Test * Table 4.7 Observed and Predicted Rates of Regime Change by Period (1945–2005) * cd "C:\ " use "DDLA.dta", clear * Identify regime of previous year tsset cc_cow year gen r1 = l.r label var r1 "Regime (t-1)" label values r1 r drop if (year<1945 | year>2005) * Identify two historical periods gen period=0 replace period=1945 if (year>1944 & year<1978) replace period=1978 if (year>1977 & year<2006) * Estimate Transitions Model (4.2.5) and save predicted probabilities gllamm trans2 npr_all rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3, /// link(olo) i(cc_cow) robust trace nolog gllapred p_g0 , mu above(0) * Transtions to democracy p_d_ gllapred p_d_ , mu above(1) * Transtions to semi-democracy p_s_ gen p_s_ = p_g0-p_d_ * Estimate Breakdowns model (4.4.5) and save predicted probabilities gllamm break npr_all rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 shugart multip s_1, /// link(logit) fam(binom) i(cc_cow) robust trace nolog * Risk of breakdown b_a_ gllapred b_a_ , mu * TABLE 4.7 Observed and Predicted Rates of Regime Change by Period (1945–2005) * Observed rates tab r1 r if period==1945, r tab r1 r if period==1978, r tab r1 r if period==1945, r tab r1 r if period==1978, r * Predicted rates mean p_d_ p_s_ , over(period) mean b_a_ , over(period s_1)