* Democracies and Dictatorships in Latin America: Emergence, Survival, and Fall * Scott Mainwaring and Aníbal Pérez-Liñán (Cambridge University Press, 2013) * Replication for Chapter 4: Regime Survival and Fall: A Quantitative Test * Tables 4.1 - 4.5 * cd "C:\ " use "DDLA.dta", clear tsset cc_cow year gen r1 = l.r label var r1 "Regime (t-1)" label values r1 r drop if (year<1945 | year>2005) ** TABLE 4.1 Patterns of Regime Change, by Period (1945–2005) tab r1 r if year<1978, r tab r1 r if year>1977, r /** TRANSITIONS **/ ** TABLE 4.2 Survival Models for Authoritarian Regimes (Transitions), 1945–2005 * 4.2.1 (Baseline) gllamm trans2 gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 /// if (year>1944 & year<2006), /// link(olo) i(cc_cow) robust trace nolog estimates store reg421 * 4.2.2 (Radicalism) gllamm trans2 rad_all region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 /// if (year>1944 & year<2006), /// link(olo) i(cc_cow) robust trace nolog estimates store reg422 * 4.2.3 (Radicalism by group) gllamm trans2 rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 /// if (year>1944 & year<2006), /// link(olo) i(cc_cow) robust trace nolog estimates store reg423 * 4.2.4 (Normative preferences) gllamm trans2 rad_all npr_all region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 /// if (year>1944 & year<2006), /// link(olo) i(cc_cow) robust trace nolog estimates store reg424 * 4.2.5 (Main model) gllamm trans2 npr_all rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 /// if (year>1944 & year<2006), /// link(olo) i(cc_cow) robust trace nolog estimates store reg425 * 4.2.6 (Endogeneity) - Precise s.e. estimates will vary with each run /* Program for transitions */ program drop _all program wrap_transitions /* Create uncorrelated instruments */ reg npr_all d_00_44 a_1 if (year>1944 & year<2006) predict i_npr_all, r /* Estimate endogenous variables */ reg npr_all i_npr_all rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 predict x_npr_all /* Estimate model */ ologit trans2 x_npr_all rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 /// if (year>1944 & year<2006) /* Clear instruments */ drop i_npr_all x_npr_all end bootstrap, reps(5000) strata(idsampler oilmin) : wrap_transitions estimates store reg426 *xml_tab reg421 reg422 reg423 reg424 reg425 reg426, save("Survival_models.xls") below stats(N) sheet("Transitions") stars(* 0.1 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) replace /// *keep(rad_all rad_gov rad_opp npr_all x_npr_all region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ indust_ oilmin ghist10 age age2 age3 ) ** TABLE 4.3 Additional Transition Models * 4.3.1 (Spatial lag) ologit trans2 npr_all rad_gov rad_opp us_t gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 dif08 estimates store reg431 * 4.3.2 (Literacy) ologit trans2 npr_all rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 lit_ estimates store reg432 * 4.3.3 (Inequality) ologit trans2 npr_all rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 gini_ estimates store reg433 * 4.3.4 (Inflation) ologit trans2 npr_all rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 ihist10 estimates store reg434 *xml_tab reg431 reg432 reg433 reg434, save("Robustness_checks.xls") below stats(N) sheet("Transitions") stars(* 0.1 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) replace /// *keep(rad_gov rad_opp npr_all region us_t d_nonla dif08 gdp_1_ lit_ indust_ gini_ oilmin ghist10 ihist10 age age2 age3 ) * Complementary test for indirect effects (replicates 4.2.5 fixing the level of normative preferences) gllamm trans2 rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 if (npr_all > 0), /// link(olo) i(cc_cow) robust trace nolog gllamm trans2 rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 if (npr_all < 0), /// link(olo) i(cc_cow) robust trace nolog /** BREAKDOWNS **/ ** TABLE 4.4 Models for Competitive Regimes (Breakdowns), 1945–2005 * 4.4.1 (Baseline) gllamm break gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 shugart multip /// if (break !=. & year>1944 & year<2006), link(logit) fam(binom) i(cc_cow) robust trace nolog estimates store reg441 * 4.4.2 (Radicalism) gllamm break rad_all region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 shugart multip s_1 /// if (break !=. & year>1944 & year<2006), link(logit) fam(binom) i(cc_cow) robust trace nolog estimates store reg442 * 4.4.3 (Radicalism by group) gllamm break rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 shugart multip s_1 /// if (break !=. & year>1944 & year<2006), link(logit) fam(binom) i(cc_cow) robust trace nolog estimates store reg443 * 4.4.4 (Normative preferences) ** Radicalism is significant without s_1 ** gllamm break rad_all npr_all region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 shugart multip s_1 /// if (break !=. & year>1944 & year<2006), link(logit) fam(binom) i(cc_cow) robust trace nolog estimates store reg444 * 4.4.5 (Main model) gllamm break npr_all rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 shugart multip s_1 /// if (break !=. & year>1944 & year<2006), link(logit) fam(binom) i(cc_cow) robust trace nolog estimates store reg445 * 4.4.6 (Endogeneity) - Precise s.e. estimates will vary with each run /* Program for breakdowns */ program drop _all program wrap_breakdowns /* Create uncorrelated instruments */ reg npr_all d_00_44 a_1 if (year>1944 & year<2006) predict i_npr_all, r /* Estimate endogenous variables */ reg npr_all i_npr_all rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 shugart multip s_1 predict x_npr_all /* Estimate model */ logit break x_npr_all rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 shugart multip s_1 /// if (break !=. & year>1944 & year<2006) /* Clear instruments */ drop i_npr_all x_npr_all end bootstrap, reps(5000) strata(idsampler s_1 oilmin) : wrap_breakdowns estimates store reg446 *xml_tab reg441 reg442 reg443 reg444 reg445 reg446, save("Survival_models.xls") below stats(N) sheet("Breakdowns") stars(* 0.1 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) append /// *keep(rad_all rad_gov rad_opp npr_all x_npr_all region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ indust_ oilmin ghist10 shugart multip s_1 age age2 age3 _cons ) ** TABLE 4.5 Additional Breakdown Models * 4.5.1 (Spatial lag) logit break npr_all rad_gov rad_opp us_t gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 shugart multip s_1 dif08 estimates store reg451 * 4.5.2 (Literacy) logit break npr_all rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 shugart multip s_1 lit_ estimates store reg452 * 4.5.3 (Inequality) logit break npr_all rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 shugart multip s_1 gini_ estimates store reg453 * 4.5.4 (Inflation) logit break npr_all rad_gov rad_opp region us_t d_nonla gdp_1_ ghist10 oilmin indust_ age age2 age3 shugart multip s_1 ihist10 estimates store reg454 *xml_tab reg451 reg452 reg453 reg454, save("Robustness_checks.xls") below stats(N) sheet("Breakdowns") stars(* 0.1 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) append /// *keep(rad_gov rad_opp npr_all region us_t d_nonla dif08 gdp_1_ lit_ indust_ gini_ oilmin ghist10 ihist10 shugart multip s_1 age age2 age3 _cons )