Working Papers #181 - 190

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State Subsidization of Catholic Institutions in Brazil, 1930-1964: A Contribution to the Economic and Political History of the Church

Kenneth P. Serbin

Working Paper #181 - October 1992

Kenneth P. Serbin is a Research Associate at the North-South Center and a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of History at the University of California, San Diego, where he will defend his dissertation, entitled "Priests, Social Conflict, and Celibacy: A History of Brazil's Catholic Seminaries." He was a Fulbright Fellow in Brazil, where he published "Igreja, estado e a ajuda financeira pública no Brasil, 1930-1964: Estudos de três casos chaves," Textos CPDOC (Rio de Janeiro: Fundação Getúlio Vargas, 1991), as well as other articles. While in Brazil he was also a freelance correspondent and photographer for the National Catholic Reporter. He has received grants from the Mellon Fellowships in the Humanities program, the Organization of American States, and other organizations. During the spring 1992 semester, he was a Residential Fellow at the Kellogg Institute.

The author wishes to thank the institutions that made it possible for him to conduct research in Brazil for this article: the Fulbright Commission; the Organization of American States; the Department of History of the University of California, San Diego; and the Tinker Foundation. He would also like to thank the personnel of the Centro de Pesquisa e Documentação em História Contemporânea do Brasil of the Fundação Getúlio Vargas. He is grateful for the comments on an earlier version of this work made by Professors Steve Topik, Pedro A. Ribeiro de Oliveira, and especially Ralph Della Cava. He thanks Professors Celso Castro, Zairo Cheibub, and Ralph Zerkowski for their suggestions. However, the responsibility for this article and its shortcomings is entirely that of the author. He thanks the Kellogg Institute for its financial support for his translation of this article from the original Portuguese, and finally, he would like to thank Mr. Robert Grimes for his support.

Abstract

This paper contributes to the economic and political history of the Brazilian Catholic Church by examining the system of federal subsidization organized under the first government of Getúlio Vargas. The political pact with the state gave the Church funds to increase the size of its patrimony and its participation in building the country's educational, cultural, and social-assistance infrastructure. Using examples from unpublished documents and other previously unstudied sources, this paper is a first attempt to determine the amount of that aid and to gauge its importance for both the state and the Church. The findings add another dimension to the debate on the relative strength of the Brazilian state during the first Vargas government. They also help us to understand the financial structure of the Church.

Resumo

Este artigo contribui para a história econômica e política da Igreja Católica no Brasil no período de 1930 a 1964 através do exame do sistema de subvenções federais organizado durante o primeiro governo Vargas. O pacto político com o estado forneceu à Igreja verbas que ajudaram a ampliar seu patrimônio, estabelecendo-a como uma base importante da infra-estrutura educacional, cultural e assistencial do país. Valendo-se de exemplos de documentos não publicados e outras fontes até agora não estudadas, este trabalho é uma primeira tentativa de determinar o volume dessas subvenções e de avaliar sua importância tanto para o estado quanto para a Igreja. A evidência aqui apresentada adiciona uma nova dimensão ao debate sobre o papel do estado brasileiro no primeiro governo Vargas. Ajuda-nos também a compreender a evolução da estrutura financeira da Igreja.

(42 pages)

Mexican Business and the State: The Political Economy of a "Muddled" Transition

Blanca Heredia

Working Paper #182 - October 1992

Blanca Heredia is a researcher at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM) and is currently completing her doctoral dissertation for the Department of Political Science at Columbia University. Her most recent article, "Politics, Profits and Size: The Political Transformation of Mexican Business," appeared in Douglas Chalmers, Maria do Carmo Campello de Souza, and Atilio Boron, eds., The Right and Democracy in Latin America (New York: Praeger, 1992) and "The Political Economy of the Mexican Crisis: 1982-88" appeared in Dharam Ghai, ed., The Social Impact of Crisis and Adjustment (London: Zed Books: 1991). She was a Guest Scholar at the Institute during the fall semester 1991.

An earlier version of this paper was presented at a conference on "Business Elites and Democracy in Latin America," held at the Kellogg Institute in May 1991.

Abstract

In the late 1970s and early 1980s Mexico, in common with most of Latin America, experienced heightened levels of conflict in state-private-sector relations along with growing politicization on the part of domestic entrepreneurs. In contrast to most other authoritarian regimes in the region, however, conflict in state-business relations stopped short of rupture and business elites' political activation failed to facilitate a full-fledged transition to democracy. While democracy may evolve in the future, business elites have thus far only succeeded in ushering in a process of partial and segmented political liberalization which has tended to reinforce, rather than erode, the basic pillars of authoritarian rule. The main argument developed in this paper is that Mexican entrepreneurs' failure to play a role similar to that performed by other business elites in authoritarian settings during the early 1980s was due to the comparatively greater capacity of the Mexican government to both initially withstand and then effectively respond to business elites' demands. That capacity was, in turn, dependent upon the Mexican state elites' command over large economic and political resources, relative to those controlled by other Latin American authoritarian elites. The first section of the paper examines the conditions that led to high levels of state-private-sector conflict and growing politicization of Mexican business elites during the 1970-1982 period. The second section analyzes the process through which the government managed to deal with and relatively rapidly undermine business elites' opposition after 1982.

Resumen

A fines de los años setenta y principios de los ochenta, México, al igual que la mayor parte de Latinoamérica, experimentó altos niveles de conflicto en las relaciones entre el estado y el sector privado junto con una creciente politización de los empresarios locales. Sin embargo, en contraste con la mayoría de los regímenes autoritarios de la región, el conflicto en las relaciones entre el estado y los empresarios no llegó a la ruptura y la activación política de las élites empresariales no alcanzó a promover una completa transición hacia la democracia. Aunque existe la posibilidad de una evolución hacia la democracia en el futuro, las élites empresariales sólo han conseguido hasta ahora desencadenar un proceso de liberalización política parcial y segmentada, el cual ha tendido a reforzar, en lugar de desgastar, los pilares básicos del régimen autoritario. El principal argumento que se desarrolla en este ensayo es que el fracaso de los empresarios mexicanos en desempeñar un papel similar al de otras élites empresariales en regímenes autoritarios a principios de la década de los ochentas se debió a la mayor capacidad del gobierno mexicano tanto de resistir inicialmente como de responder posteriormente con efectividad a las demandas de las élites empresariales. Dicha capacidad dependió, a su vez, del control por parte de las élites estatales mexicanas de gran cantidad de recursos económicos y políticos, en relación a aquéllos manejados por otras élites autoritarias latinoamericanas. La primera parte del ensayo analiza las condiciones que condujeron a altos niveles de conflicto entre el sector estatal y el privado así como a una politización creciente de las élites empresariales mexicanas durante el período comprendido entre 1970 y 1982. La segunda parte analiza el proceso a través del cual el gobierno logró manejar y desactivar relativamente rápido la oposición de las élites empresariales después de 1982.

(29 pages)

Christian Communities in Chile and Peru

Michael Fleet

Working Paper #183 - November 1992

Michael Fleet, a Residential Fellow at the Institute during the fall semester 1990, is Associate Professor of Political Science at Marquette University. He received his doctorate from the University of California at Los Angeles. He is the author of The Rise and Fall of Chilean Christian Democracy (Princeton University Press, 1985) and of many articles and chapters on religion and politics in Latin America. The topic of this paper, drawn from research he conducted while at the Institute, is part of a book-length study he conducted with Brian H. Smith, published by ND Press, 1997.

Abstract

Christian communities and other popular Catholic organizations in Latin America have been objects of controversy in recent years. At issue are the nature of their religious and political radicalism and the extent to which they represent the feelings and commitments of popular sector Catholics generally. This paper looks briefly at recent work on Christian communities in Chile and Peru and goes on to discuss surveys conducted by the author in Santiago and Lima in 1987 in which he elicited the views of Christian community activists and other Catholics on a variety of religious and political topics. The author evaluates the data in terms of political and theological attitudes, differentiating among his respondents according to the degrees of their organizational and ritual involvement with the Church and their experience of secular influences.

Resumen

Las comunidades cristianas, así como otras organizaciones populares católicas en América Latina, han sido objeto de controversia en los últimos años. Los temas debatidos son la naturaleza de su radicalismo político y religioso y el grado en el que representan los sentimientos y compromisos de los católicos del sector popular en general. Este ensayo analiza brevemente la investigación reciente sobre las comunidades cristianas en Chile y Perú y discute las encuestas llevadas a cabo por el autor en Santiago y Lima en 1987, que presentan las opiniones de activistas de la comunidad cristiana y otros católicos sobre una variedad de temas políticos y religiosos. El autor hace una evaluación de los datos en términos de las actitudes políticas y teológicas, diferenciando a los encuestados de acuerdo con el grado de su asociación organizativa y ritual con la iglesia y con su experiencia en términos de influencias seculares.

(40 pages)

Business Perceptions and the Transition to Democracy in Chile

Ernest Bartell, CSC

Working Paper #184 - December 1992

Rev. Ernest Bartell, CSC, is Executive Director of the Helen Kellogg Institute for International Studies and Professor of Economics at the University of Notre Dame. Among his publications are "John Paul II and International Development" in The Making of an Economic Vision edited by O. Williams and J. Houck (Washington, DC: University Press of America, 1991) and "Private Goods, Public Goods, and the Common Good: Another Look at Economics and Ethics in Catholic Social Teaching" in The Challenge of the Common Good to U.S. Capitalism edited by J. Houck and O. Williams (Washington, DC: University Press of America, 1986). He has conducted research on the private sector and democracy in Chile and Brazil.

Abstract

This paper explains and challenges the prevailing view that other Latin American cases should attempt to replicate the successful incorporation of Chilean business elites into a democratic political process and a competitive international economy. He shows that, in contrast to their counterparts in the rest of Latin America, Chilean business elites have successfully competed with foreign and domestic competitors without special privilege and dependence on the government. He also uses his extensive interview material to illustrate that experience under democratic rule has allowed Chilean business elites to overcome certain traditional traits that formerly prevented them from participating in democratic rule, particularly insecurity and defensiveness regarding their social legitimacy and skepticism regarding the prospects for economic expansions under democratic rule. However, he notes that Chilean business elites are likely to thwart any nonmarket motivated attempts at redistributing wealth, thereby limiting the substantive goals of democracy. He further surmises that the Chilean pattern of incorporation into the international economy is unlikely to be successfully replicated in other Latin American cases.

Resumen

El presente trabajo explica y desafía la visión prevaleciente de que otros países latinoamericanos deberían intentar repetir la exitosa incorporación de las élites empresariales chilenas dentro de un proceso político democrático y una economía internacional competitiva. El autor muestra que, en contraste con sus contrapartes en el resto de América Latina, las élites empresariales chilenas han competido exitosamente con los competidores domésticos y extranjeros sin contar con ningún privilegio especial ni dependencia alguna del gobierno. También emplea su extenso material basado en entrevistas para ilustrar que su experiencia bajo un régimen democrático ha permitido a las élites empresariales chilenas superar ciertos rasgos tradicionales que anteriormente les impedían participar en un régimen democrático, especialmente su inseguridad y su actitud defensiva con respecto a su legitimidad social y su escepticismo con respecto a las perspectivas de expansión económica bajo un régimen democrático. Sin embargo, señala que existe la probabilidad de que las élites empresariales chilenas impidan cualquier intento no motivado por el mercado de redistribución de la riqueza, limitando, con ello, las metas substantivas de la democracia. Más adelante conjetura que es improbable que el modelo chileno de incorporación en la economía internacional se repita con éxito en otros países latinoamericanos.

(39 pages)

Business Elites and Democracy in Latin America: Reflections on the May 1991 Kellogg Institute Conference

Juan J. López

Working Paper #185 - December 1992

Juan J. López is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago. His field of specialization is comparative politics (Latin America) and his dissertation is on political institutions and private investment in Argentina. He has been a Lecturer at the College of the University of Chicago and had an article on methodology and the philosophy of science, "Theory Choice in Comparative Social Inquiry," in Polity 25, No. 2 (Winter 1992): 267-282.

Abstract

The discussion focuses on three themes. One is the divergence between positions of business associations and concerns of individual entrepreneurs regarding several determinants of investment. Another issue is under what conditions economic growth can be achieved under democracy; why market reforms have generated little private investment in many cases, and which government policies and political institutions can promote investment. The third topic is the relationship between democracy and capitalism in Latin America. The current acceptance of democracy by capitalists challenges assumptions about the conflictual relationship between democracy and capitalism and opens the question of what determines capitalists' preferences for political regimes.

Resumen

La discusión se concentra en tres temas principales. Uno de ellos es la divergencia existente entre las posiciones que adoptan las asociaciones empresariales y las preocupaciones de empresarios individuales con respecto a varios determinantes de inversión. Otro tema es bajo qué condiciones se puede alcanzar el crecimiento económico en un régimen democrático; por qué las reformas de mercado han generado, en muchos casos, una respuesta pequeña de la inversión privada, y cuáles son las políticas gubernamentales y las instituciones políticas que pueden promover la inversión. El tercer tema es la relación existente entre democracia y capitalismo en América Latina. La aceptación actual de la democracia por parte de los capitalistas cuestiona los supuestos acerca de la relación antagónica entre democracia y capitalismo y formula la pregunta de qué es lo que determina las preferencias de los capitalistas con respecto a los regímenes políticos.

(27 pages)

Mexico's Trade and Industrialization Experience Since 1960: A Reconsideration of Past Policies and Assessment of Current Reforms

Jaime Ros

Working Paper #186 - January 1993

Jaime Ros, Associate Professor of Economics at Notre Dame, specializes in international political economy and Latin American economic development. He is coauthor of La organización industrial en México (with José I. Casar et al., Siglo XXI, 1990) and editor of MODEM: Un modelo macroeconómico para México (CIDE, 1984). His many articles include "The Mexican Economy: Recent Evolution and Perspectives" (Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 4, 1980); "Mexico from the Oil Boom to the Debt Crisis: An Analysis of Policy Responses to External Shocks, 1978-1985" in Latin American Debt and the Adjustment Crisis (Rosemary Thorp and Laurence Whitehead, eds., Pittsburgh, 1987); and, in collaboration with Carlos Márquez, "Labor Market Segmentation and Economic Development in Mexico" in Economic Development and Labor Market Segmentation (Charles Craypo and Frank Wilkinson, eds., forthcoming). He was a senior researcher at ILET (Instituto Latinoamericano de Estudios Transnacionales) and former director of the Department of Economics at CIDE (Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas) in Mexico, and senior economist at the Secretariat of the South Commission in Geneva.

This paper was prepared for the UNU/WIDER project on Trade and Industrialization Reconsidered. The author is indebted for comments to Ernest Bartell, c.s.c., José Casar, José Luis Estrada, Claudia Schatan, and the participants at the WIDER conference held at the OECD Development Centre, Paris, August 31-September 3, 1991. Special thanks are due to Gerry Helleiner for his many comments and suggestions on an earlier version. All remaining errors are entirely the responsibility of the author.

Abstract

As are many other developing countries, but perhaps faster and farther than most of them, Mexico has been moving in the 1980s toward a liberalized trade regime after a long period of import subsitution industrialization. Compared to other experiences, and especially to those which are also well advanced in this process such as Chile and Bolivia in Latin America, the Mexican case shows a number of singular features which, over a longer time span, will probably make it a unique case of economic and political success in terms of the smoothness of its transition, given the small adjustment costs involved and the virtual absence of political tensions and resistance to change. This paper argues that-besides the critical role of non-economic factors, including geography and politics-this outcome can largely be attributed to the success that Mexico had with import substitution industrialization and, perhaps more paradoxically, to the very adverse macroeconomic conditions under which trade reform was undertaken in the 1980s. At the same time, and for related reasons, the paper is rather skeptical about the long-term benefits that the particular form of trade liberalization adopted is likely to bring.

Resumen

Al igual que muchos otros países en desarrollo pero quizás más rápidamente y más lejos que la mayoría de ellos, México ha avanzado en la década de los ochentas hacia un régimen comercial más liberal después de un largo período de industrialización por sustitución de importaciones. Comparado con otras experiencias, y especialmente con las de Chile y Bolivia en Latinoamérica que se encuentran muy avanzados en este proceso, el caso mexicano presenta cierto número de rasgos particulares que a la larga probablemente lo convertirán en un caso único de éxito económico y político, dada la suavidad de su transición, los bajos costos de ajuste y la ausencia virtual de resistencia al cambio y tensiones políticas. Este trabajo argumenta que-además del papel crítico de los factores no económicos, incluyendo la geografía y la política-este tipo de transición puede explicarse por la no menos exitosa experiencia que tuvo México con la industrialización por sustitución de importaciones y, quizás más paradójicamente, por las condiciones macroeconómicas tan adversas bajo las cuales se llevó a cabo la reforma comercial en la década de los ochentas. Al mismo tiempo y, por razones relacionadas con lo anterior, este trabajo se muestra escéptico en relación con los beneficios de largo plazo que puede traer consigo la forma particular de liberalización comercial adoptada.

(47 pages)

From Trade Liberalization to Economic Integration: The Case of Mexico

Enrique Dussel Peters and Kwan S. Kim

Working Paper #187 - January 1993

Enrique Dussel Peters was a graduate student in the Department of Economics at the University of Notre Dame. He has worked and published on Latin America's debt crisis and wrote his dissertation on "Industrialization and Foreign Trade Liberalization in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector and the Impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement."

Kwan S. Kim is Professor of Economics and Departmental Fellow of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He is a development economist, occasionally serving as an economic consultant for governments of developing countries and for international agencies. His career includes four years as a Rockefeller Foundation scholar in East Africa, two years as a senior economist with the Agency for International Development, and short stints as an economic advisor or consultant at such institutions as the Hudson Institute, UNIDO, and the Nacional Financiera in Mexico. He has published extensively in over fifty professional journals and edited volumes in the areas of development studies, international trade, econometrics, development planning, and industrialization, with a special interest in East Africa, East Asia, and Mexico, and has edited Papers on the Political Economy of Tanzania and Debt and Development in Latin America. He is author of Industrial Policy and Development in South Korea and coauthor of Development Strategies for the Future of Mexico and Korean Agricultural Research: The Integration of Research and Extension.

An initial version of this paper was presented at the session "Issues in Mexican Structural Adjustment" of the North American Economics and Finance Association (NAEFA) meeting in New Orleans, January 3-5, 1992. The authors thank Maxwell Cameron, Miguel Ramirez, and Jaime Ros for helpful comments and discussions.

Abstract

This paper reviews Mexico's economic situation before 1982. It outlines the evolution of Mexico's inward-oriented strategy and its experience with trade liberalization since 1985, highlighting the causes of the structural crisis manifested in 1982. Sections II and III examine the reform policies of the de la Madrid administration (1982-1988) and the more radical approach under the current Salinas administration. These sections also explore the implications for Mexico of changing international conditions from the 1980s onwards and the potential of its current development strategy. Finally, the paper examines the conditions and implications for Mexican development of the North American Free Trade Agreement. The paper concludes with a prospective analysis of the Mexican economy.

Resumen

Este trabajo analiza la situación económica de México anterior a 1982. Describe la evolución de la estrategia 'hacia adentro' de México y su experiencia con la liberalización económica desde 1985, enfatizando las causas de la crisis estructural que se manifestó en 1982. Secciones II y III examinan las políticas reformistas de la administración de de la Madrid (1982-1988) y el proyecto más radical bajo la administración de Salinas de Gortari. Estas secciones además examinan las implicaciones de las actuales condiciones internacionales desde los 1980s y las posibilidades de la estrategia de desarrollo actual. Por último, el trabajo desarrolla las condiciones e implicaciones del Tratado de Libre Comercio para el desarrollo de México. El trabajo concluye con un análisis en perspectiva de la economía mexicana.

(36 pages)

Poverty in Mexico: An Empirical Analysis

Nora Lustig

Working Paper #188 - January 1993

Nora Lustig is a Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies program at the Brookings Institution. A sample of her recent publications include Mexico: The Remaking of an Economy (Brookings Institution, 1992); North American Free Trade: Assessing the Impact (with Barry Bosworth and Robert Lawrence, eds., Brookings Institution, 1992); "From Structuralism to Neostructuralism: The Search for a Heterdox Paradigm" in The Latin American Development Debate: Neostructuralism, Neomonetarism, and Adjustment Processes, Patricio Meller, ed., (Westview Press, 1991).

The author is very grateful to Arianna Legovini for providing excellent research assistance in the preparation of this document. She is also greatly indebted to INEGI for providing the 1984 Income Expenditure Survey and patient advice on its use. In particular, she would like to thank Carlos Jarque, head of INEGI, and María Teresa Jiménez and Narciso Arevalo. Last, but not least, she thanks Oscar Altimir and two anonymous referees for their extremely helpful comments, Surjit Bhalla and Santiago Levy for useful conversations and Annette Leak for typing several versions of this document.

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to measure the incidence of poverty in Mexico using the 1984 Income-Expenditure Survey. The contribution is threefold. First, poverty is estimated using three poverty measures and a range of six poverty lines available for Mexico. Second, the study compares the resulting estimates with those of other available studies based on the same survey. Third, it provides a profile of poor households in terms of their relative position, material conditions, and demographic, educational, and occupational characteristics.

Resumen

El principal objetivo de este trabajo consiste en medir la incidencia de la pobreza en México utilizando la encuesta de ingreso y gasto de 1984. La aportación es triple. Primero, la pobreza se estima utilizando tres medidas de pobreza y un rango de seis líneas de pobreza disponibles para México. Segundo, el estudio compara las estimaciones resultantes con aquéllas de otros estudios disponibles basados en la misma encuesta. Tercero, proporciona un perfil de las familias pobres en términos de su posición relativa, condiciones materiales, y características demográficas, educacionales y ocupacionales.

(29 pages)

Democratization, Institutional Reform, and Political Conflict: Evaluating Alternative Explanations of Electoral Reform in Costa Rica

Fabrice Edouard Lehoucq

Working Paper #189 - January 1993

Fabrice E. Lehoucq completed his doctoral dissertation for the Department of Political Science at Duke University. In 1989, he taught in the M.A. Program in Central American History, School of History, at the Universidad de Costa Rica. He has received grants from the Harry S. Truman and Tinker Foundations as well as from the SSRC. He has published articles on politics and institutions in Costa Rica in the Journal of Latin American Studies, the Anuario de Estudios Centroamericanos, and the Revista de Historia. He was a Residential Fellow at the Institute during the spring semester 1992.

Major portions of the research upon which this article is based were made possible by an International Doctoral Research Fellowship furnished by the Social Science Research Council and the American Council of Learned Societies. The author acknowledges the help of Benjamín Núñez, Vilma Peña, and Sara Soto Orozco, who helped him to collect much of primary source data referenced in this essay. Iván Molina Jiménez made some useful suggestions on the penultimate version of this paper. Finally, he thanks Torben Iversen for several lengthy conversations about the themes found in this article as well as his willingness to comment upon an earlier version of it.

Abstract

This article seeks to identify the conditions that prompt executives and legislators to reform electoral laws, especially those with far-ranging and redistributive consequences. It pursues this objective by evaluating the ability of alternative models of political behavior and institutional reform to account for the promulgation of the 1946 Electoral Code in Costa Rica, one of the oldest and most stable democracies in Latin America and in the world, more generally. The 1946 Electoral Code, among other reasons, merits study because its enactment threatened to loosen the governing party's grip on the presidency in the 1948 elections and promised to eradicate-if not reduce-its majority in Congress in the 1946 midterm as well as 1948 elections. A central conclusion of this article is that, contrary to some recent critiques of strategic models of institutional change, the inability of legislative seat maximization or career protection models to explain the promulgation of the 1946 Electoral Code does not mean that rational choice theories cannot account for the reform of electoral laws. By developing a third model that focuses upon the interest incumbents have in promoting political stability, this paper shows that the creation of institutions that promise to punish key sectors of the ruling bloc is prompted, in part, by the threat of a civil war that at least some incumbents fear losing. The establishment of institutions with such redistributive repercussions also stems from the willingness of some within the ruling bloc to fashion a new alliance with those in the opposition who also share an interest in political stability.

Resumen

El presente artículo busca identificar las condiciones que impulsan al poder ejecutivo y a los legisladores a reformar las leyes electorales, especialmente aquéllas que tienen consecuencias de gran alcance y redistributivas. Este objetivo se persigue mediante la evaluación de la capacidad que tienen los modelos alternativos de comportamiento político y reforma institucional para explicar la promulgación del Código Electoral de 1946 en Costa Rica, una de las democracias más antiguas y estables existentes en Latinoamérica y en el mundo en general. El Código Electoral de 1946 merece ser estudiado, entre otras razones, porque su promulgación amenazó con reducir el dominio del partido gobernante sobre la presidencia en las elecciones de 1948 y prometió erradicar-si no reducir-su mayoría en el Congreso en las elecciones de mitad de período de 1946 así como en las de 1948. Una conclusión central de este artículo es que, contrariamente a algunas críticas recientes de modelos estratégicos de cambio institucional, la incapacidad de los modelos de maximización de escaños legislativos o de protección de carrera para explicar la promulgación del Código Electoral de 1946 no significa que las teorías de la elección racional sean incapaces de explicar la reforma de las leyes electorales. Al desarrollar un tercer modelo basado en el interés de los políticos en el poder en promover la estabilidad política, este trabajo muestra que la creación de instituciones que prometen penalizar a sectores clave del bloque gobernante es impulsada, en parte, por la amenaza de guerra civil que al menos algunos de los políticos en el poder temen perder. El establecimiento de instituciones con tales repercusiones redistributivas también surge de la voluntad de algunos dentro del bloque gobernante de formar una nueva alianza con aquéllos en la oposición que comparten el interés en la estabilidad política.

(29 pages)

A Sign of the Times: Television and Electoral Politics in Argentina, 1983-1989

Silvio R. Waisbord

Working Paper #190 - January 1993

Silvio R. Waisbord finished his Ph.D. dissertation for the University of California, San Diego; his topic is "Unplugged Party Lines: Political Parties, Communication, and Election Campaigns in Argentina, 1983-1989." In the spring semester 1992 he was a Residential Fellow at the Kellogg Institute.

Abstract

This paper examines the use of television as a political campaign tool in the 1983-1989 elections in Argentina. Campaigns were conducted against the background of a national television system that was subject to both commercial and political pressures. Initially, politicians' lack of experience in exploiting the medium led to a scramble for air time right before the election. Within a few years, television became the dominant form of political communication. Political candidates soon developed more sophisticated approaches to television campaigning, but failed to reach a deeper understanding of how television could facilitate the interaction between political parties and citizens in a democracy.

Resumen

El presente trabajo analiza el uso de la televisión como instrumento de campaña política en las elecciones de 1983-1989 en la Argentina. Las campañas se llevaron a cabo con el trasfondo de un sistema nacional de televisión sujeto tanto a presiones comerciales como políticas. Inicialmente, la falta de experiencia de los políticos en el uso de este medio de comunicación condujo a una rebatiña por el tiempo en el aire justo antes de la elección. Después de unos pocos años, la televisión se convirtió en la forma dominante de comunicación política. Los candidatos políticos pronto desarrollaron enfoques más sofisticados de campaña televisiva, aunque fracasaron en el logro de un entendimiento más profundo de como la televisión puede facilitar la interacción entre los partidos políticos y los ciudadanos en una democracia.

(36 pages)